Home
HOBOCODE COUNTER-HATE MONITOR The Weather Report · 2026-W30

One of sixteen scripts shows coordination

We checked all 1,034 tracked accounts for the week of July 20 to 26, 2026. Ninety-five items crossed our line, running sixteen distinct scripts across five countries, 50 of them in the United States and 19 in the United Kingdom. One script shows coordination we could document. The other fifteen moved without it.

Reach and coordination are different measurements, and this week separates them sharply. The single most-carried item, at 7.5 million platform-reported impressions, describes migration to Britain as an invasion by an army moving slowly enough to avoid an armed response. It sits in a script with one other carrier and no bridge between them. The one script where we can document coordination, a European remigration campaign running through a named organising hub, carries a fraction of that reach. Nothing scored into our top tier: peak severity is 3.9 of 5, and ten of the sixteen scripts sit in the tier below it.

95confirmed items, from 1,034 accounts checked
16narrative scripts active this week
5sitting legislators among the carriers, in four countries
14of 24 real trigger events drew any confirmed reaction

Scripts by severity

Click a bar for the full scorecards.

The week's weather, day by day

One dot per real event. Filled dots drew a confirmed reaction; hollow ones stayed quiet. Click for the full board.

The 95 items, by harm level

Click for the full ledger.

On the radar

Click a date for the full calendar and the patterns building toward it.

01 · The scripts

How the sixteen scripts score

Each script is scored 0 to 5 on reach, toxicity, coordination, mainstreaming, and harm potential. Click one for its scorecard. Peak severity this week is P2; nothing reached the top tier.

02 · The ledger

The 95 confirmed items in date order

Click a row for the quote, the coding, and the source.

03 · The week's weather

Fourteen of 24 real events drew a reaction

The quiet events matter as much as the loud ones: they show which stories these narratives feed on.

04 · On the radar

What's coming

Building now

On the calendar

05 · Method

How this was built

The sample and the standard

This is a purposive monitoring sample: all 1,034 accounts on our roster, spanning 23 ideological categories, checked in full every week. It is not a random slice of the internet, and it misses whatever a monitored account didn't post. A hit is language that collectivizes, dehumanizes, or calls for exclusion of a protected group, or that runs dehumanizing or eliminationist framing against a political camp. Criticism of governments, institutions, and named individuals over their own conduct stays protected, however sharp. Every hit rests on an independently fetchable, dated source read in full, and every hit was then re-verified by a second, adversarial pass that tried to break it. Items that failed re-verification are not in this report.

The severity score

Five factors, each scored 1 to 5: reach (R), toxicity (T), coordination (C), mainstreaming risk (M), and harm potential (H). They combine as (R·T·C·M1.3·H1.5)1/5.8: multiply all five, with mainstreaming risk raised to the 1.3 power and harm potential to the 1.5 power because those two carry the most real-world weight, then take the 5.8th root. The 5.8 is the sum of the weights (1 + 1 + 1 + 1.3 + 1.5), which brings the result back onto the 1-to-5 scale. Multiplying instead of adding means no single factor can carry a score alone. P1 starts at 4.0, P2 at 3.0, P3 at 2.0. Coordination scores above the floor only on real signals: a named hub, near-duplicate phrasing, synchronized timing, or a confirmed bridge between actors.

Support the fundraiser →
HOBOCODE COUNTER-HATE MONITOR · The Weather Report, issue 2026-W30 · Window: July 20 to 26, 2026 · Words by Jerm in collaboration with Claude · Full data behind every module on this page: the narrative dashboard