Two reports run on the same window and the same verification standard. The Weather Report covers hate narratives against protected groups. The Fault Line Report covers political polarization between camps. They share a week and nothing at the verdict layer.
Each edition stands on its own and is not revised once published. Where a later week corrects an earlier one, the correction is recorded on the reliability and corrections page rather than by editing the original.
| Week | Hate | Polarization |
|---|---|---|
| 2026-W36August 31 to September 6, 2026 current | The Weather Report, August 31 to September 6: No Top-Tier Script, and the Invasion Frame Reaches a Conference StageWe monitored our 1,034-account roster, the anonymous boards we track, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. The roster is the frame we track; what we collected is smaller: 117 of the 152 X handles on the roster reached, 1,568 opening posts from the boards, and 4,910 Bluesky posts. 314 items crossed our line. 289 of them run 38 distinct scripts and 25 stand alone. No script reached the top tier. The peak is the invasion frame at 3.95: migrants at Ceuta, in the Channel and inside Western cities as an army to be repelled, sixteen items whose carriers sit on different rungs. Paul Golding carries the violence, one post at calling for violence, which sets the harm floor the script clears on its own computed score; RadioGenoa carries the exclusionary predicate in its religious telling, Muslim and Islamic invaders; and a sitting MP and, from the Reform UK conference stage, Nigel Farage carry the secular invasion metaphor with no trait predicate and no violence predicate, the MP at stigmatizing on an exclusion clause and the party leader at biased. The Clancy mistrial on September 4, an 11 to 1 deadlock with the defense naming the lone male holdout, drove two scripts about women: the collective-guilt script we have carded since the trial opened, now carrying an extermination call on a board opening post, and a civic-exclusion script that moved from the jury’s legitimacy to the franchise itself across Matt Walsh, Myron Gaines, Jack Posobiec and five board threads. The anti-Indian script picked up named carriers on X for the first time, seven accounts including Auron MacIntyre, Jayda Fransen and Calvin Robinson, while its board wing ran three extermination calls in the week a board thread reassigned the Sheffield newborn killing to Indian Hindu suspects. Every one of the 38 coordination verdicts is organic parallel; three convergences are on the record, none with a bridge. On Bluesky, four items came from 4,910 posts, one of them a threat framed as a prediction against the governing camp, coded under the same standard we apply in the other direction. | The Fault Line Report, August 31 to September 6: The Trajectory Instrument Moves Its First TiersWe scored 18 camp-versus-camp narratives across 13 fault lines for the week of August 31 to September 6, 2026. Eight sit at the top watch tier, three of them lifted there by the trajectory instrument’s first applied readings, while the same rule dropped one card to the bottom tier. None was fully supported by our checks: three failed at least one check outright and fifteen split. Two narratives stayed ignited as the Michigan Senate fight and the Clancy mistrial ran, with their harm-clearing items handed to the other instrument. Everything measured here is protected political speech, with one exception this week: items inside two narratives cleared the harm bar, were routed to the harm instrument, and are reported only there. What remains on these cards did not clear our harm gate. |
| 2026-W35August 24 to 30, 2026 | The Weather Report, August 24 to 30: The Record's First Top-Tier Script, With Its Organizing Hub NamedWe monitored our 1,034-account roster, the anonymous boards we track, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 24 to 30, 2026, reaching 97 of the 152 X handles on the roster. 291 items crossed our line, double last week’s count. 255 of them run 39 distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. For the first time in this record a script reached the top tier: the replacement premise and its remigration remedy, fifteen items scoring 4.03, one claim-script carried by two separate sets with no evidenced operational link between them, anonymous board threads and named accounts around the Save Europe Act European Citizens’ Initiative, in the week the European Commission refused to register that initiative and its organizers pivoted to court threats and a million-signature push. That script continues a chain we have carded since the Channel-invasion ruling three weeks back, and it is the first chain in the record to pick up a documented coordination verdict mid-life. The week’s center of gravity is Ceuta, where, per the Financial Times reporting our trigger scan records, mobs attacked migrant encampments on successive nights: three separate scripts work the aftermath, one celebrating the violence as homeland defense, one casting the arrivals as a rape and crime menace, one recasting the landings as conquest. The same reporting describes attacks organized over WhatsApp; the accounts applauding online show no documented link to the mob or to each other. Reform UK’s leader posted that young males without identity documents who come from “dangerous cultures” should not be free to walk the streets of Essex towns, and a sitting MP of his party echoed the line days later against undocumented young men from “backward cultures” roaming streets and parks, the week’s second documented coordination signal. And on Bluesky, an account called for lethal military force against AfD supporters; we coded it under the same standard we apply in the other direction. | The Fault Line Report, August 24 to 30: Five Narratives Contradicted, and the Record's First CrossingsWe scored 13 camp-versus-camp narratives across 9 fault lines for the week of August 24 to 30, 2026. None was fully supported by our checks: five failed at least one check outright and eight split. Two narratives recorded this instrument’s first crossings into the harm instrument, and the trajectory instrument produced its first measurements, held unapplied at low confidence. Everything measured here is protected political speech, with one exception this week: items inside two narratives cleared the harm bar, were routed to the harm instrument, and are reported only there. What remains on these cards did not clear our harm gate. |
| 2026-W34August 17 to 23, 2026 | The Weather Report, August 17 to 23: Five Scripts Reached the Second Tier, Four Calling for Removal or DeathWe monitored our 1,034-account roster, the anonymous boards we track, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 17 to 23, 2026, reaching 137 of the 152 X handles on the roster. 143 items crossed our line. Ninety-five of them run seventeen distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. Five scripts reached the second tier this week, and four of the five called for a group to be removed, expelled, or killed. The most severe came from a sitting official rather than a fringe account: Israel’s national security minister set a nightly kill quota for Gaza beyond anyone posing a threat and praised a newly built execution facility for Palestinian prisoners, the highest-scoring script on the board at 3.79. A sitting British politician promised an asylum seeker execution without trial; a high-reach account called for Muslim people to be rounded up and deported as an invasive species; and anonymous board threads told readers they could legally kill or maim Indian and Hindu men. Not one of the seventeen showed documented coordination: each was either a single account posting repeatedly or independent accounts converging on the same claim, with no organizing hub we could establish. The longest-running script needed no event at all, casting Jewish people as a single hidden actor whose will explains unrelated outcomes, twenty-six items across three platforms and the longest continuous chain in the record. | The Fault Line Report, August 17 to 23: Our Checks Contradicted Four Narratives, and None Held Up CleanWe scored 11 camp-versus-camp narratives across 10 fault lines for the week of August 17 to 23, 2026. Our checks contradicted four of them against their own claims and left the other seven mixed; not one came back clean this week. Officials or major outlets carried three of the eleven at the top elite anchor. Three narratives persisted from last week under ruled joins. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W33August 10 to 16, 2026 | The Weather Report, August 10 to 16: The Only Overtly Coordinated Script Was Announced Party PolicyWe monitored our 1,034-account roster, the anonymous boards we track, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 10 to 16, 2026, reaching 127 of the 152 X handles on the roster. 139 items crossed our line. Seventy-three of them run ten distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. A single commentator ran a ten-item campaign labeling Muslim Democratic officials jihadists, and a sitting president amplified the framing on his own platform on Friday. This was the week of the Clacton by-election, and the vote left a narrow mark on the record: it fed exactly one script we carded, Reform UK’s own announced policy of denying welfare and social housing to foreign nationals, carried by the party’s leader and a senior party official in by-election week. That script is also the only one of the ten where coordination is overt, because a party announcing its own policy is its own organizing hub. The largest script needed no event at all, for the third straight week: Jewish people cast as a single hidden actor whose will explains unrelated outcomes, twenty-nine items on three platforms, running well above last week’s volume on a wider footprint. | The Fault Line Report, August 10 to 16: Our Checks Contradicted Three Narratives and Supported OneWe scored 8 camp-versus-camp narratives across 7 fault lines for the week of August 10 to 16, 2026. Our checks contradicted three of them against their own claims and supported one: every check we attached to House leadership’s framing of the war authorization resolved in its favor. Officials or major outlets carried all eight. The Clacton by-election produced coverage but no camp-versus-camp narrative in our collection. Two narratives persisted from last week under ruled joins, a first for this instrument. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W32August 3 to 9, 2026 | The Weather Report, August 3 to 9: A Week of Border News, and the Biggest Script Ran Without ItWe checked all 1,034 tracked accounts, the anonymous boards we monitor, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 3 to 9, 2026. 114 items crossed our line. Sixty-two of them run ten distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. The window carried real border news, Italy’s new air and sea checks on travel from Spain and an EU push for migrant return hubs in Africa, and one of the 21 trigger events we scanned connects to a script we carded: Nigel Farage’s naval proposal, whose invasion framing began in his own posts two days before its formal launch. The largest script needs no event at all: Jewish people cast as a single actor controlling institutions and outcomes, nineteen items across three platforms. We could not document an organizing link inside any of the ten scripts. That is a limit on what we can show. It says nothing about whether anyone organized them. | The Fault Line Report, August 3 to 9: Our Checks Contradicted Two Narratives, Both at Official TierWe scored 14 camp-versus-camp narratives across 13 fault lines for the week of August 3 to 9, 2026. Our checks contradicted two of them against their own claims: a Senate party organ’s framing of the Democratic Party as intending a Marxist system, and the administration’s claim that China is fueling data-center opposition. Officials or major outlets carried five of the fourteen. One narrative is locked onto its mirror, and four of the fourteen ran inside the political right rather than across the aisle. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W31July 27 to August 2, 2026 | The Weather Report, July 27 to August 2: One Crossing, and Jewish People Cast as a Single ActorWe checked all 1,034 tracked accounts for the week of July 27 to August 2, 2026. 129 items crossed our line across twelve arenas. Seventy-seven of them run six distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. Forty-three of those items respond to a single event, the July 31 mass crossing into Spain's Ceuta enclave. A second script runs on no event at all: Jewish people addressed as one group acting in concert, applied to whatever subject was at hand. In one script we could document the organizing: a funder we could identify, and speakers who shared a stage. In the other five we found accounts converging on the same framing, and we could not establish an organizing link between those accounts. That is a limit on what we can show. It says nothing about whether anyone organized them. | The Fault Line Report, July 27 to August 2: Six Narratives Locked Onto Their MirrorWe scored 27 camp-versus-camp narratives across 10 fault lines for the week of July 27 to August 2, 2026. Six of them are locked, which is the condition where each camp runs the other camp's narrative as its own primary evidence. Officials or major outlets carried ten. Our checks supported two narratives, contradicted one, and could not resolve the remaining twenty-four either way. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W30July 20 to 26, 2026 | The Weather Report, July 20 to 26: One of Sixteen Scripts Shows CoordinationWe checked all 1,034 tracked accounts for the week of July 20 to 26, 2026. Ninety-five items crossed our line, running sixteen distinct scripts across five countries, 50 of them in the United States and 19 in the United Kingdom. One script shows coordination we could document. The other fifteen moved without coordination we could document. | The Fault Line Report, July 20 to 26: Fifteen of Sixteen Narratives Came Back MixedWe scored sixteen camp-versus-camp narratives across eight fault lines for the week of July 20 to 26, 2026. Officials or major outlets carried seven of them. Our checks resolved one narrative against its own claim and left fifteen mixed, which is the most useful thing we can report about the week. Four of the five most charged were carried at official or major-outlet tier; a culture-war casting fight carried the fifth. Everything measured here is protected political speech. |
| 2026-W29July 14 to 20, 2026 | The Weather Report: The Most Severe Rhetoric Came From Sitting OfficialsWe checked all 925 tracked accounts for the week of July 14 to 20, 2026. Twelve items crossed our line, running eight distinct scripts, and the two most severe came from sitting federal and state officials speaking on the record. Eight of the twelve target protected groups, and the other four run dehumanizing or eliminationist framing at political opponents, which we score under a separate extremism track. | The Fault Line Report: Our Checks Contradicted Three of the Five Most Charged NarrativesThe first edition of our polarization monitor, a companion to the weekly hate report. We scored fifteen camp-versus-camp narratives across nine fault lines for the week of July 14 to 20, 2026. Officials carried four of the five most charged, our own checks are part of the record, and everything measured here is protected political speech. |