The two columns are separate instruments, and each ranks only the cards we scored in our monitored sample. EPS and CPS are scored on separate anchors, and each number reads only against its own column. Nothing in the polarization column cleared our harm bar apart from the two handoffs set out below, and neither instrument makes a legal finding in any jurisdiction. This edition covers six days, Monday 12 to Saturday 17 October 2026, and lands on Sunday 18 October; from the next edition, each weekly window runs from Sunday to Saturday. Limitations: the record runs to the latest post stamped 23:59 UTC on Saturday 17 October, and our collection for it closed on Sunday 18 October. Of the 152 roster X handles, 139 carried posts dated inside the window and 13 carry no in-window post in our record, so a camp that leans on those accounts may read thinner on X where their posts were missed. The collector’s page cap cut RadioGenoa’s posts of 14 and 15 October, and JackPosobiec’s collection begins on 14 October and RebelNewsOnline’s on 13 October. State-media, news and aggregator accounts on X, among them XHNews, globaltimesnews and PDChina, carry nothing after about 07:00 UTC on 12 October. Board threads opened on Saturday 17 October between about 07:00 and 17:37 UTC left the board before our collection reached it, and Bluesky in this record is mostly news outlets. Private individuals are never named. Two kinds of person are public actors for this purpose and are named: a person charged or convicted in a widely reported court case, and an activist who acts in public under their own name or a chosen one. The published product carries a selection bias of its own, the one section 15 of our methodology sets out: these reports over-represent charged narratives that happened to generate falsifiable predictions. The Limitations section of The Fault Line Report sets out the rest.
The two instruments share a verification standard and nothing at the verdict layer. The harm column measures harm to groups defined by who their members are, past a documented bar, on a ladder of six rungs from biased framing to calls for violence, each coded on a written definition, and on a separate branch it records dehumanizing or eliminationist framing of a political camp, which is reported there under its own label; every item there carries its own sourced evidence, and The Weather Report carries that column’s counts. In the harm column this week, 472 confirmed items sit on the ledger, 424 of them in 41 scripts and 48 standing alone. No script reached the top tier: the peak script was scored at 3.6 and the median of the 28 ranked scripts at 2.8, with 11 ranked scripts in the second tier and 17 in the third, and the 13 scripts whose reach is unmeasured are ranked in a list of their own. The rungs run stigmatizing 221, hateful 103, biased 60, threatening 47, calling for violence 29 and glorifying violence 12. Of the 29 items coded as calls for violence or forced removal, 10 are anonymous board threads, two come from news reports and 17 come from 9 accounts on X, and six of those 17 rest on a stated inference; four each come from TheGloriousLion and PaulGolding, and two each from TRobinsonNewEra and HomerPavlos. A demand that a group leave or be deported, with no program of removal by origin stated, is coded threatening. Every script carries the verdict no coordination identified. The polarization column measures framing contests below the harm bar, and items on two of its cards that cleared that bar are reported in the harm column. The Michigan Senate race is the arena where each side carries a polarization card and the harm column holds the president’s rally remark. President Trump’s remark at his rally in Youngstown, Ohio, on 12 October, which applies a jihad label to Abdul El-Sayed, the Democratic nominee, cleared the harm bar at the stigmatizing rung and sits in the harm column. In the polarization column the race is two cards that mirror each other: the association card, in which the campaign of the Republican nominee Mike Rogers, the president and the Republican Jewish Coalition read a relative’s posts as proof that El-Sayed belongs to the Muslim Brotherhood and lies about it, at 4.4 and in W1; and El-Sayed’s reading of the charges as attacks on his faith, at 3.2. Three polarization cards reach W1. The woke-right card, in which Mark Levin wrote that “Putin owns the Woke Reich” and James Lindsay wrote that the faction around Tucker Carlson backs JD Vance because “Vance promised them stuff for their unfailing support”, stands at 4.8 on an accelerating trajectory multiplier of 1.3, and the America First card that answers it, in which Michael Anton, Auron MacIntyre and Matt Walsh cast Lindsay and his wing as controlled-opposition conservatives who despise the right’s own base, stands at 2.2 in W3, where a decaying trajectory multiplier of 0.6 takes its base score of 3.7; the two form a locked pair. The Omar search card, in which Mayor Mamdani, Sen. Bernie Sanders and House Democrats read the search of Rep. Ilhan Omar’s home on 12 October as the administration turning the Department of Homeland Security on a critic, stands at 4.1. Two narratives read as ignited, each on a cleared item that meets both handoff tests: the item’s hostile content carries the card’s own claim or falls on the card’s own target, and the item names the card’s trigger or its target in its own words. An item that carries a card’s claim with a protected group put in the place of the actor the card accuses carries the card’s own claim. The El-Sayed association card is ignited on the president’s rally remark, and the hate-mob card on the Free Palestine movement on a HonestReporting Canada post of 15 October that names the people at anti-Israel protests and casts violence as their type. The routing rule is one rule: an item that clears the harm bar is scored and reported only on the harm side; it sets the ignition status of a narrative only under the two handoff tests, recorded on the card as its handoff reference; and it never counts on the polarization side as a below-bar example or as score evidence. The interlock column above shows the two handoffs, and what remains on those cards did not clear our harm gate. Two narratives sit at near ignition with no cleared item: the woke-right card, on four markers, and the card in which Elon Musk, Mike Cernovich, David Vance and Max Blumenthal read Ukraine’s resumed refinery strikes as Zelenskyy sabotaging the president’s diesel plan, on a post that casts the accounts defending Zelenskyy as “an army of Ukrainebots infesting the comments”. Eleven read warming, and two read cold with no marker in their carrier sets: the card on the Yandex bot claim and the card on the president’s dealings with Russia. Two cards carry a trajectory multiplier this week, the woke-right card at 1.3 and the America First card at 0.6, each read against the week’s median change across the cards with five or more matching posts in both windows, which this week are those two cards alone; the other 15 hold 1.0. Every score on both sides is published to one decimal, and a score within 0.15 of a tier edge carries a boundary mark, which names one factor and the score a one-step move in it would give; three polarization cards and 13 harm scripts carry one. On each of the three cards and each of the 13 scripts the step would carry the score across the edge. Three cards sit in W1, 12 in W2 and two in W3, the Green Party card at 2.7 and the America First card at 2.2, and every card at near ignition or ignited stands in W2 or above on its computed score. The card on France Unbowed after violence at the edges of the marches of 17 October stands highest in W2, at 3.7. All 17 polarization verdicts read mixed, and none reads contradicted or core unsubstantiated by our checks. Contradicted means a probative check reached the claim’s core proposition, the load-bearing thing the frame asserts, and failed against what is observable, and no probative check on the core or the narrow reading came back true or mixed; core unsubstantiated means no probative check reaches that core proposition in either direction, a weaker result than disproved. Two verdicts are held at low confidence, the two cards of the locked pair, and 15 at moderate. Every polarization card reads no coordination identified. Ignited and near ignition are review statuses that escalate our reading cadence, and they carry no verdict about anyone.
Harm instrument. The ledger that follows compares this week’s harm scripts with the scripts carded a week earlier, and every count in it belongs to the harm instrument alone. Two scripts moved up from the third tier to the second, the invasion frame on arrivals in Britain, Ireland and the United States and the frame that assigns violence in the French unrest to people of migrant descent; three moved down from the second tier to the third; and six moved down from the third tier to the fourth.
17 narratives carded last week are not carded this week.
| Narrative | Continues | Tier |
|---|---|---|
| Native populations described as replaced, with the removal of migrants and non-white people demanded as the answer | Native populations described as replaced, with the removal of migrants and non-white people offered as the answer | no change |
| Muslim people denied a place in Western countries, with their expulsion demanded | Muslim people denied a place in Western countries, with their mass deportation demanded | no change |
| Arrivals in Britain, Ireland and the United States described as an invading force | Arrivals and non-white residents described as an invading force, a horde or a flood | P3 to P2 |
| People from poorer countries cast as carrying their homelands' violence and incapacity in their nature | People from poorer countries cast as carrying violence and dysfunction in their nature, wherever they govern or settle | no change |
| Violence, terror and destruction assigned to Muslim people as a group | Violence and disorder assigned to Muslim people as a group, with bans on Muslim pilots and Muslim entry offered as the remedy | no change |
| Violence in the French protests and unrest, and in its spread to Milan, assigned to people of migrant descent as a group | Violence in the French and Belgian school protests assigned to people of migrant descent as a group | P3 to P2 |
| National belonging denied by descent to Black, South Asian and other non-white people | National belonging denied by descent to Black, Somali, brown and mixed-race people | no change |
| Muslim officeholders and immigrants treated as an enemy inside the state, with faith or national origin as the charge | Muslim officeholders and candidates treated as an enemy inside the state, with faith or national origin as the charge | no change |
| Violence, terror and crime assigned to migrants and national-origin groups as a class | Violence, murder and rape assigned to migrants and national-origin groups as a class | P2 to P3 |
| Muslim presence read as the conquest of Western countries and cities | Muslim presence read as the takeover of France, Britain, other European countries, the United States and Japan | P2 to P3 |
| Migrants described as living off the taxpayer, with removal pledged on that ground | Arrivals described as living off the native taxpayer and present only for welfare | no change |
| Mass immigration, diversity and multiculturalism, standing for the people who arrived, blamed for the ruin of France, Belgium, Canada and England | Residents of migrant descent, under the word diversity, blamed for the ruin and coming death of France, Belgium and Britain | no change |
| Hidden control of governments, institutions, speech and culture assigned to Jewish people | Hidden control of governments, media, money and wars assigned to Jewish people | no change |
| A collective defect of character attributed to women | A collective defect of character and mind attributed to women | no change |
| Black people placed below the human and ranked of lesser worth and capacity | Black people placed below the human, as apes and animals, evil by birth and unfit for office | no change |
| Members of opposing political camps placed below the human, as non-human beings, vermin and herd animals | Members of opposing political camps placed below the human, as parasites, subhumans and a mindless herd | no change |
| Migrant, refugee and Muslim men presented as a sexual danger to the women and children of Britain and Europe | Migrant and Muslim men presented as a sexual danger to the women and children of Britain and Europe | P2 to P3 |
| Killing of Black people and immigrants wished for and celebrated | Killing of Black and non-white people wished for and celebrated | no change |
| Violence against members of opposing political camps called for and cheered | Members of opposing political camps marked for death, execution or mass imprisonment | no change |
| Women held unfit for equal standing, with the vote, office and legal roles to be withheld from them | Women held unfit for equal rights, with their rights and the vote to be taken from them | no change |
| Cheating in dealings assigned to Jewish people as a group habit | Lying assigned to Jewish people as a group habit | no change |
| Devil worship and the sexual abuse of children ascribed to Jewish people | Satan worship, ritual harm to children and depravity ascribed to Jewish people by nature | no change |
| Indian and South Asian people ranked a low people and made standing material for mockery | Indian people ranked a low and incapable people and made standing material for mockery | no change |
| Indian and Hindu people described as vermin, animals and disease-bearing | Indian and Hindu people described as vermin, parasites and unclean by nature | no change |
| Jewish people accused of plotting the erasure of white and other non-Jewish populations | Jewish people accused of plotting the destruction of non-Jewish populations, by plague, poison or falling birth rates | P3 to P4 |
| Violence and crime assigned to Black and non-white people as a group trait | Violence and crime assigned to Black people as a group trait, in France, London and the United States | P3 to P4 |
| Violence assigned to transgender people as a group trait | Violence assigned to transgender people as a group trait | P3 to P4 |
| Non-white and brown people described as subhumans, vermin and demons | Non-white and brown people described as vermin and of no worth | no change |
| Men described as apes and non-human creatures fit for mutilation | Men described as non-human, worthless and deserving of suffering | no change |
| White people cast as a worthless, degenerate or evil race | White people cast as a lesser, worthless or animal race, with a beating of a white man celebrated | P3 to P4 |
| Indian presence described as a takeover of Western countries and a ruin of the places Indian people enter | Indian presence described as ruining the places and institutions Indian people enter | P3 to P4 |
| MAGA supporters cast as protectors of child abusers and as traitors and terrorists | Opposing political camps cast as sexual abusers of children and their protectors | P3 to P4 |
Each line is one narrative compared with itself a week earlier, joined on a key assigned when the narrative was first carded. Text similarity between the two weeks plays no part in the join. The two instruments are reported separately and never combined into a single direction, because they measure different things on different scales.
Polarization instrument. The ledger that follows compares this week’s polarization narratives with the narratives carded a week earlier, and every count in it belongs to the polarization instrument alone; its absence count and the harm ledger’s absence count are two ledgers over two different sets of cards. Each narrative is joined to its own earlier card on a key assigned when the narrative was first carded, and a narrative carded for the first time this week opens a lineage of its own. Four narratives moved tier: the woke-right frame up from W2 to W1, the abolition frame on ICE down from W1 to W2, the America First frame down from W1 to W3 and the Green Party frame down from W2 to W3. The hate-mob frame on the Free Palestine movement crossed into the harm instrument.
Crossed into the harm instrument marks a continuing narrative whose card is ignited this week after its card last week was not. Every ignited card holds a handoff, an item that cleared the harm bar, and the crossing mark goes only to those not ignited last week. Two cards are ignited this week: one crossed, and one was ignited last week as well, with a handoff this window that continues that status.
11 narratives carded last week are not carded this week.
| Narrative | Continues | Tier | Harm instrument |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mark Levin and James Lindsay cast the New Right faction around Tucker Carlson as traitors owned by Putin, a bloc bought with promises from Vance and a faction that wants the Republicans to lose, eighth week | Laura Loomer, James Lindsay and Mark Levin cast the New Right faction around Tucker Carlson as a subversive bloc that Russia amplifies and foreign money buys to make the Republicans lose, seventh week | W2 to W1 | no crossing |
| America First commentators cast James Lindsay's pro-Israel wing as controlled-opposition conservatives who despise the right's own base and owe their standing online to a clipping farm | America First speakers and commentators frame the neoconservative wing's antisemitism charges as a bid to take the party back from Trump's heirs | W1 to W3 | no crossing |
| The Rogers campaign, President Trump and the Republican Jewish Coalition read a relative's old posts as proof that his family is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood and that he lies about it, and Mark Levin attacks a White House adviser who defended him | Rogers ties El-Sayed's donors to Hamas, Hezbollah and al-Qaeda at their first debate, and the RJC, Brigitte Gabriel, Laura Loomer and Mark Levin read his silence on the 7 October anniversary, his donors and his family as proof that he is a danger to America and to Michigan's Jewish community | no change | no crossing |
| El-Sayed and his campaign read the Republican charges about his family as attacks on his faith, like those once made against Kennedy and Obama, and say his opponents raise them to keep voters off the costs they face | Trump attacks El-Sayed with a jihad label and Rogers ties his donors to Hamas, and Bernie Sanders, Ro Khanna, Hasan Piker and El-Sayed read the attacks as bigotry, with Sanders's and Piker's widest versions saying Republicans oppose him because he is Muslim | no change | no crossing |
| After violence at the edges of the 17 October marches, Prime Minister Lecornu casts France Unbowed as stirring the anger to use the unrest before the presidential election, Marine Le Pen says the far left took the movement's demands hostage, and a commentator abroad casts the protests as riots by the far left | France's school protests reach a third national day, and Prime Minister Lecornu and the ECR group in the European Parliament cast France Unbowed as stirring the unrest for electoral gain, with the ECR seeking an inquiry into the far left's European alliance | no change | no crossing |
| House Democratic Leader Jeffries casts Trump as an admirer of Putin who cannot be trusted to defend Ukraine, and The Bulwark reads his Russia moves as a betrayal of Ukraine, after limits on Ukraine's military satellite service and a pause on new Russia sanctions | Sen. Murphy, Rep. Beyer and the House candidate Fred Wellman read Trump's diesel deal with Putin as the president taking Russia's side against Ukraine for his own advantage in the midterms | no change | no crossing |
| Glenn Greenwald, Jackson Hinkle, Cenk Uygur and Max Blumenthal read new reporting on the US ambassador's adviser in Jerusalem as proof that US officials serve Israel against their own country, and widen it to the government, the Republican establishment and a US commander's advisers | Max Blumenthal and Jackson Hinkle read the New York Times report on an aide to Ambassador Huckabee who blocked embassy reporting on Israeli conduct as proof that officials inside the US government work for Israel against their own country | no change | no crossing |
| Hen Mazzig and the Combat Antisemitism Movement read a Dublin hotel's withdrawal of rooms from an antisemitism conference, and the week's pro-Palestinian campaigning, as proof that the Free Palestine movement is driven by hatred of Jewish people | Hen Mazzig casts the Free Palestine movement as driven by hatred of Jewish people and indifferent to Palestinians around the third anniversary of 7 October, and HonestReporting Canada says anniversary chants for intifada show no concern for Palestinians in Gaza | no change | crossed this week |
| David Vance and Hen Mazzig read the Green Party's stand on its conference motion defining Zionism as racism, as Labour moved to end local partnerships over it, as proof of a party run on antisemitism that holds up its Jewish leader as a token | Mark Levin, David Vance and Hen Mazzig, with Israel's foreign ministry and President Herzog, read the Green Party's vote defining Zionism as racism as proof that the party is run by people hostile to Jewish people who passed it to put them at risk | W2 to W3 | no crossing |
| Phil Klay in The New York Times, Glenn Greenwald, Candace Owens and Benjamin Norton read the dropped plan to livestream the Fort Hood gunman's execution as proof that the defense secretary and the movement behind the administration want state killing as spectacle | Mother Jones, Gov. Shapiro, Fred Wellman and Glenn Greenwald read the plan to livestream the Fort Hood gunman's execution as proof that the Trump administration is drawn to brutality for its own sake | no change | no crossing |
| Rep. Delia Ramirez calls DHS a weapon acting as designed and files a bill to abolish ICE, with Mayor Mamdani and Amnesty International USA casting cruelty and abuse as the agency's purpose | Mayor Mamdani, Rep. Khanna and the ACLU read an ICE officer's shooting of a man in the Bronx as proof that ICE is violent by nature and has to be abolished | W1 to W2 | no crossing |
| The Senate Republican Conference tells voters seven times in five days that Democrats will reopen the border and grant mass amnesty, assigning the Democratic Socialists' program to the party as a whole | The Senate Republican Conference, Senator Barrasso and Vice President Vance assign the Democratic Socialists' immigration program to the Democratic left as a whole, and Vance defines American socialism as a preference for foreign workers | no change | no crossing |
| David Sacks, the All-In podcast and Jordan Schachtel read Anthropic's warning about self-replicating models, its draft safety bill and Bill Gates's AI-risk campaign as hoaxes and a scare campaign run for market share and reputation | Mike Cernovich, Jordan Schachtel and the All-In podcast read an extinction warning, a journalism fund and Anthropic's model-welfare rule as a campaign by the AI safety camp for money and power | no change | no crossing |
One narrative crossed into the harm instrument this week: its card is ignited, and its card last week was not. Its row is marked in the table.
Each line is one narrative compared with itself a week earlier, joined on a key assigned when the narrative was first carded. Text similarity between the two weeks plays no part in the join. The two instruments are reported separately and never combined into a single direction, because they measure different things on different scales.
| Script | EPS | Tier | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| Native populations described as replaced, with the removal of migrants and non-white people demanded as the answer | 3.6 | P2 | 62 |
| Muslim people denied a place in Western countries, with their expulsion demanded | 3.6 | P2 | 23 |
| Arrivals in Britain, Ireland and the United States described as an invading force | 3.2 | P2 | 12 |
| People from poorer countries cast as carrying their homelands' violence and incapacity in their nature | 3.1 | P2 | 24 |
| Violence, terror and destruction assigned to Muslim people as a group | 3.1 | P2 | 23 |
| Violence in the French protests and unrest, and in its spread to Milan, assigned to people of migrant descent as a group | 3.1 | P2 | 16 |
| The crushing and death of Jewish people called for, and the planner of the 7 October 2023 attack praised as a hero | 3.1 | P2 | 7 |
| National belonging denied by descent to Black, South Asian and other non-white people | 3.0 | P2 | 18 |
| Muslim officeholders and immigrants treated as an enemy inside the state, with faith or national origin as the charge | 3.0 | P2 | 7 |
| Violence, terror and crime assigned to migrants and national-origin groups as a class | 2.9 | P3 | 16 |
| Muslim presence read as the conquest of Western countries and cities | 2.9 | P3 | 15 |
| Migrants described as living off the taxpayer, with removal pledged on that ground | 2.9 | P3 | 6 |
| Mass immigration, diversity and multiculturalism, standing for the people who arrived, blamed for the ruin of France, Belgium, Canada and England | 2.9 | P3 | 15 |
| Hidden control of governments, institutions, speech and culture assigned to Jewish people | 2.8 | P3 | 38 |
| Jewish religious law cast as holding Christian people for servitude or death | 2.8 | P3 | 3 |
| Standing for Parliament and voting in Britain reserved for Christian men of one ethnicity | 2.8 | P3 | 3 |
| A collective defect of character attributed to women | 2.8 | P3 | 25 |
| Black people placed below the human and ranked of lesser worth and capacity | 2.7 | P3 | 11 |
| Members of opposing political camps placed below the human, as non-human beings, vermin and herd animals | 2.7 | P3 | 7 |
| Migrant, refugee and Muslim men presented as a sexual danger to the women and children of Britain and Europe | 2.6 | P3 | 12 |
| Killing of Black people and immigrants wished for and celebrated P2 minimum, harm potential 5 | 2.6 | P2 | 5 |
| Violence against members of opposing political camps called for and cheered P2 minimum, harm potential 5 | 2.6 | P2 | 2 |
| The sexual abuse of children ascribed to Muslim people and their faith | 2.6 | P3 | 3 |
| Women held unfit for equal standing, with the vote, office and legal roles to be withheld from them | 2.3 | P3 | 6 |
| Cheating in dealings assigned to Jewish people as a group habit | 2.2 | P3 | 2 |
| Treachery and divided loyalty assigned to Jewish people | 2.2 | P3 | 2 |
| Devil worship and the sexual abuse of children ascribed to Jewish people | 2.2 | P3 | 4 |
| Indian and South Asian people ranked a low people and made standing material for mockery | 2.2 | P3 | 10 |
| Jewish and Christian people declared evil and marked to perish reach unmeasured, ranked separately P2 minimum, harm potential 5 | 2.3 | P2 | 4 |
| Indian and Hindu people described as vermin, animals and disease-bearing reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 2.0 | P3 | 4 |
| Jewish people accused of plotting the erasure of white and other non-Jewish populations reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.9 | P4 | 6 |
| Violence against women praised and enjoyed reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.9 | P4 | 2 |
| Violence and crime assigned to Black and non-white people as a group trait reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.8 | P4 | 3 |
| Violence assigned to transgender people as a group trait reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.8 | P4 | 2 |
| Non-white and brown people described as subhumans, vermin and demons reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.7 | P4 | 6 |
| Southeast and East Asian people described as animals and barbarians reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.7 | P4 | 5 |
| Arab and Saudi people described as apes and subhumans reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.7 | P4 | 3 |
| Men described as apes and non-human creatures fit for mutilation reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.7 | P4 | 2 |
| White people cast as a worthless, degenerate or evil race reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.7 | P4 | 3 |
| Indian presence described as a takeover of Western countries and a ruin of the places Indian people enter reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.6 | P4 | 5 |
| MAGA supporters cast as protectors of child abusers and as traitors and terrorists reach unmeasured, ranked separately | 1.6 | P4 | 2 |
| Arena | Narrative | CPS | R | I | P | E | L | Tier | Ignition | Logic test |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | Mark Levin and James Lindsay cast the New Right faction around Tucker Carlson as traitors owned by Putin, a bloc bought with promises from Vance and a faction that wants the Republicans to lose, eighth week | 4.8 | 4 | 5 | 3 | 3 | 4 | W1 | near ignition | mixed evidence |
| US | The Rogers campaign, President Trump and the Republican Jewish Coalition read a relative's old posts as proof that his family is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood and that he lies about it, and Mark Levin attacks a White House adviser who defended him | 4.4 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 4 | W1 | ignited | mixed evidence |
| US | Mayor Mamdani, Sen. Sanders and House Democrats read the search of Rep. Ilhan Omar's home as the administration turning DHS on a critic to silence opposition | 4.1 | 5 | 4 | 4 | 5 | 3 | W1 | warming | mixed evidence |
| France | After violence at the edges of the 17 October marches, Prime Minister Lecornu casts France Unbowed as stirring the anger to use the unrest before the presidential election, Marine Le Pen says the far left took the movement's demands hostage, and a commentator abroad casts the protests as riots by the far left | 3.7 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 4 | W2 | warming | mixed evidence |
| Cross-border | Elon Musk, Mike Cernovich, David Vance and Max Blumenthal read Ukraine's resumed strikes on Russian refineries as Zelenskyy sabotaging Trump's diesel plan before the midterms and prolonging the war to save himself | 3.6 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | W2 | near ignition | mixed evidence |
| US | David Sacks, the All-In podcast and Jordan Schachtel read Anthropic's warning about self-replicating models, its draft safety bill and Bill Gates's AI-risk campaign as hoaxes and a scare campaign run for market share and reputation | 3.4 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 5 | 2 | W2 | warming | mixed evidence |
| Cross-border | Hen Mazzig and the Centre for Israel and Jewish Affairs read a viral chart of falling Russian bot traffic after Ukraine's strikes on Yandex as proof that the online movement against Israel is a Russian bot product run by grifters | 3.4 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 4 | W2 | cold | mixed evidence |
| US | House Democratic Leader Jeffries casts Trump as an admirer of Putin who cannot be trusted to defend Ukraine, and The Bulwark reads his Russia moves as a betrayal of Ukraine, after limits on Ukraine's military satellite service and a pause on new Russia sanctions | 3.3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | W2 | cold | mixed evidence |
| UK | Nigel Farage and David Vance read ITV's undercover investigation of Reform UK councillors as proof that the broadcasters and the establishment want Reform out of the picture | 3.3 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 5 | 3 | W2 | warming | mixed evidence |
| US | Phil Klay in The New York Times, Glenn Greenwald, Candace Owens and Benjamin Norton read the dropped plan to livestream the Fort Hood gunman's execution as proof that the defense secretary and the movement behind the administration want state killing as spectacle | 3.3 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 4 | 2 | W2 | warming | mixed evidence |
| US | El-Sayed and his campaign read the Republican charges about his family as attacks on his faith, like those once made against Kennedy and Obama, and say his opponents raise them to keep voters off the costs they face | 3.2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 3 | W2 | warming | mixed evidence |
| US | Rep. Delia Ramirez calls DHS a weapon acting as designed and files a bill to abolish ICE, with Mayor Mamdani and Amnesty International USA casting cruelty and abuse as the agency's purpose | 3.2 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 3 | W2 | warming | mixed evidence |
| US | Glenn Greenwald, Jackson Hinkle, Cenk Uygur and Max Blumenthal read new reporting on the US ambassador's adviser in Jerusalem as proof that US officials serve Israel against their own country, and widen it to the government, the Republican establishment and a US commander's advisers | 3.2 | 3 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 3 | W2 | warming | mixed evidence |
| Cross-border | Hen Mazzig and the Combat Antisemitism Movement read a Dublin hotel's withdrawal of rooms from an antisemitism conference, and the week's pro-Palestinian campaigning, as proof that the Free Palestine movement is driven by hatred of Jewish people | 3.1 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 4 | W2 | ignited | mixed evidence |
| US | The Senate Republican Conference tells voters seven times in five days that Democrats will reopen the border and grant mass amnesty, assigning the Democratic Socialists' program to the party as a whole | 3.0 | 3 | 4 | 2 | 5 | 2 | W2 | warming | mixed evidence |
| UK | David Vance and Hen Mazzig read the Green Party's stand on its conference motion defining Zionism as racism, as Labour moved to end local partnerships over it, as proof of a party run on antisemitism that holds up its Jewish leader as a token | 2.7 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 3 | 3 | W3 | warming | mixed evidence |
| US | America First commentators cast James Lindsay's pro-Israel wing as controlled-opposition conservatives who despise the right's own base and owe their standing online to a clipping farm | 2.2 | 4 | 4 | 3 | 3 | 5 | W3 | warming | mixed evidence |
These figures come from the same records as the board above.