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HOBOCODE COUNTER-HATE MONITOR The Weather Report · 2026-W32

A week of border news, and the biggest script ran without it

We checked all 1,034 tracked accounts, the anonymous boards we monitor, and our off-roster finds for the week of August 3 to 9, 2026. 114 items crossed our line. Sixty-two of them run ten distinct scripts and the rest stand alone. The window carried real border news, Italy’s new air and sea checks on travel from Spain and an EU push for migrant return hubs in Africa, and one of the 21 trigger events we scanned connects to a script we carded: Nigel Farage’s naval proposal, whose invasion framing began in his own posts two days before its formal launch. The largest script needs no event at all: Jewish people cast as a single actor controlling institutions and outcomes, nineteen items across three platforms. We could not document an organizing link inside any of the ten scripts. That is a limit on what we can show. Whether anyone organized them stays open.

Reach and size point in different directions this week. The ten scripts carry 5,949,825 platform-reported impressions between them, counted across the items that carry a figure we could measure. The largest script is the one we can measure least: nineteen items casting Jewish people as a single controlling actor, fourteen of them 4chan threads that report replies rather than views. The week’s single highest-reach item, at 5.86 million impressions, sits in no script at all: its three words are compatible with two opposite readings, and we could not resolve which one it carries, so it stands alone in the ledger with that ambiguity recorded. Sitting legislators appear among the carriers of two scripts, both in Britain: Nigel Farage framing Channel crossings as an invasion for the Royal Navy to repel, and Rupert Lowe carrying the great-replacement script that carries the week’s highest severity score.

114confirmed items, from roster, boards, and off-roster finds
10narrative scripts active this week
2sitting legislators among the carriers, both in Britain
1of 21 trigger events connects to a carded script

Scripts by severity

Click a bar for the full scorecards.

The week's weather, day by day

One dot per real event. Filled dots drew a reaction we confirmed; hollow ones drew none we recorded. Click for the full board.

The 114 items, by harm level

Click for the full ledger.

On the radar

Click a date for the full calendar and the patterns building toward it.

01 · The scripts

How the ten scripts score

Five factors are scored from 1 to 5: reach, toxicity, coordination, mainstreaming risk, and harm potential. Their composite Ember Priority Score is shown on a chart running from 0 to 5. Click one for its scorecard. Peak severity this week is 3.57, and no script reached the top tier. Six of the ten sit in the second tier; three of them carry the severity floor, and for two, eliminationist scripts with almost no measurable reach, the floor is the only thing holding them there.

02 · The ledger

The 114 confirmed items in date order

Click a row for the quote, the coding, and the source.

03 · The week's weather

One of 21 real events connects to a carded script

The events we recorded no reaction to matter as much as the ones we did. Together they show which stories these narratives picked up this week and which drew no reaction our footprint recorded.

04 · On the radar

What's coming

Building now

On the calendar

What changed since last week

2 persisted8 new this week4 not carded this week1 moved tier

Two scripts continue a ruled lineage: the great-replacement script continues last week’s, and the Jewish-collective-control script continues the collective-agency script first carded then. The tier move belongs to the great-replacement chain, which fell from last week’s top tier as its single-event carriage receded. Four of last week’s scripts are not carded this week. We do not read that as decay: a narrative can be absent because it lost its carriers, because it did not clear the bar this week, or because this week’s collection did not surface it, and these records cannot separate those. Each line compares one narrative with itself a week earlier, joined on a key ruled when the narrative was carded rather than on any similarity between the two weeks’ text.

05 · Method

How this was built

The sample and the standard

This is a purposive monitoring sample: all 1,034 accounts on our roster, spanning 23 ideological categories, checked in full every week. It is not a random slice of the internet. It misses anything posted off our roster, and anything a roster account did not post. A hit is language that collectivizes, dehumanizes, or calls for exclusion of a protected group, or that runs dehumanizing or eliminationist framing against a political camp. Criticism of governments, institutions, and named individuals over their own conduct stays protected, however sharp. Every hit rests on a dated source read in full at collection. Where the source was still live, a second, adversarial pass re-verified the quote against it; where it had already gone offline, which covers every 4chan thread this week, the second pass re-read our collection record and the coding rather than the live page, and the item says so. Items that failed re-verification are not in this report. Research and drafting run through Claude under this methodology; every published classification passes the documented verification chain, and Jerm holds final editorial responsibility. Eight of the 114 items target political or ideological groups rather than protected classes; they clear the extremism branch of our gate, and their coding names the branch. Four items carry an unresolved target or a review flag, printed with the flag rather than silently resolved. One further flagged item, a literal incitement string whose full text reads as satire of the board that hosted it, was pulled on review rather than printed against its apparent meaning, and the pull is recorded in the data.

Limitations

Platform-reported impression counts are capture-time platform counters, not audience counts, and they can rise after we read them. Several items showed materially higher counts when re-verified against the live platform later in the week; the largest, a Maxime Bernier post, had grown to roughly six times its captured figure. Read each figure as the capture-time reading rather than an audience count.

Reach is not measurable everywhere. The 4chan corpus has no view counts and no persistent handles, so reply and image counts stand in for reach and almost certainly understate it. Every 4chan thread in this week’s set had already cycled off the live board by the time our verification pass ran, so those quotes rest on our collection records rather than a second live read.

The daily prefiltered shortlists are absent for all seven days of this window. The database covers the whole window, and the hunt read prepared slice files built directly from it, so the gap is confined to a convenience layer.

Coordination scoring leans on shared semantic payload, a shared novel claim, coined term or fabricated detail, except where we can identify an organizing hub. No script this week has one. All ten record convergence we can see and an organizing link we cannot establish, and those are different findings. Two scripts are closer to one account posting repeatedly than to many accounts converging, and their coordination factor sits at the floor accordingly.

One item in the Channel-invasion script names no target in its own sentence; the target is inferred from the account’s record and its attached media, and our re-verification votes split on it. It stays in the script with that split recorded on the item.

No hit-rate or prevalence claim here may be read as a comparison across ideological lanes. That comparison requires a lane-tier sample for every lane compared, over a common platform footprint. We did not draw that sample this pass.

The severity score

Five factors, each scored 1 to 5: reach (R), toxicity (T), coordination (C), mainstreaming risk (M), and harm potential (H). They combine as (R·T·C·M1.3·H1.5)1/5.8: multiply all five, with mainstreaming risk raised to the 1.3 power and harm potential to the 1.5 power because those two carry the most real-world weight, then take the 5.8th root. The 5.8 is the sum of the weights (1 + 1 + 1 + 1.3 + 1.5), which brings the result back onto the 1-to-5 scale. Multiplying instead of adding means no single factor can lift a score alone. One override runs the other way: any script whose harm potential reaches 5 takes a P2 floor regardless of its computed score, because eliminationist content with no measured reach is still eliminationist content. Three scripts carry that floor this week, and the chart marks them. P1 starts at 4.0, P2 at 3.0, P3 at 2.0. Coordination scores above the floor only on real signals: a named hub, near-duplicate phrasing, synchronized timing, or a confirmed bridge between actors.

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HOBOCODE COUNTER-HATE MONITOR · The Weather Report, issue 2026-W32 · Window: August 3 to 9, 2026 · Words by Jerm in collaboration with Claude · Full data behind every module on this page: the narrative dashboard