This is the record for Monday 12 October to Saturday 17 October 2026, six days, and the latest post in it is stamped 23:59 UTC on Saturday 17 October. The 1,034-account roster is the frame we track, and the collection combines the roster-linked timelines on X and Bluesky, the two boards and a Bluesky network search: 12,529 posts fall inside the window, 5,465 of them from X, 5,335 from Bluesky and 1,729 opening posts from the two boards, beside 237 news rows. Every finding below describes that monitored sample. The ledger holds 472 confirmed items, one to a url, and no script on it reached the top tier. Two scripts share the peak priority score of 3.6, and both demand removal: native populations described as replaced, with the removal of migrants and non-white people demanded as the answer, and Muslim people denied a place in Western countries, with their expulsion demanded. In the same record, 29 items are coded as calls for violence or for removal by force, a rung that takes in named programs of compulsory removal such as remigration. 10 are anonymous board threads and 2 reach the record through published reports. 17 come from 9 accounts on X, and 6 of the 17 rest on an inference recorded with the coding. TheGloriousLion and PaulGolding, who leads Britain First, supply 4 each, TRobinsonNewEra and HomerPavlos 2 each, and all but one of the 17 demand remigration or expulsion. On 17 October, as authorities counted 550,000 protesters across France, HomerPavlos wrote “Destroy every single Muslim in France or let them take over” and that France must “expel every single Muslim from the country and do whatever it takes”. Donald Trump, the President of the United States, told a rally in Youngstown, Ohio, on 12 October that Somali people are “low IQ” and “don’t have pants to wear”, in AP’s report, and that “Somalia bandits, third world gangs and jihadist sympathizers do not belong in Ohio”, in Newsweek’s. Rupert Lowe, a sitting MP who leads Restore Britain, wrote on 12 October that “Islam, as practiced by millions of Muslims in Britain, is entirely incompatible with our British way of life.”, the post with the largest impression count in this record, and on 17 October that “Tens and tens of millions must be forced to leave our continent.”, which we code threatening under our expulsion line, a demand that a group leave with no program of removal by origin stated. Of the 28 ranked scripts, 11 stand in the second tier and 17 in the third, with a median of 2.8. Every one of the 41 scripts carries the verdict no coordination identified, and together they carry a derived total of 39,952,722 impressions, the sum of X’s counters as captured at collection.
The ledger holds 472 confirmed items, one to a url. 424 of them sit in the 41 scripts, and the 48 items that match no script stand outside the ranking. The rungs run stigmatizing 221, hateful 103, biased 60, threatening 47, calling for violence 29 and glorifying violence 12, which accounts for all 472. The calling-for-violence rung takes in expulsion by force: under our expulsion line, a named program of compulsory removal by origin, such as remigration, sits on it. A demand that a group leave or be deported, with no program of removal by origin stated, sits at threatening, and we code there DavidVance’s “This is why mass deportation is essential. It can start with him.” of 14 October, over a post on Britain becoming “Blacker, browner and more mixed”, TRobinsonNewEra’s “Round them up and deport.” of 16 October and the “Mass-deportations” that Nick Tenconi, who leads UKIP, offered on 17 October as the cure for the unrest in France. Of the 29 calls, 10 are anonymous board threads. Four of the ten are editions of one recurring thread whose standing opening post says that Jewish and Christian people “both must perish”, and the others ask for the torture to death of white people, a death cult aimed at Jewish people, the wiping out of immigrants in Western cities by nuclear war, troops sent to beat Black people, the killing of Jewish ritual circumcisers and non-white people caught by dogs. Two reach the record through published reports: supporters of Hajduk Split chanted “Crush the Jews” beside “Rise up Adolf (Hitler)” on their march to the Poljud stadium on 15 October, in Euronews’s report, and the X account of a far-right online bookshop formerly trading in Suffolk wrote of the people it campaigns to remove “Plenty of them should be hanged too.”, in Byline Times’s report. The other 17 come from 9 accounts on X, and 6 of them rest on an inference recorded with the coding. TheGloriousLion supplies four: a call on 15 October for “mass-remigration of the Third World enclaves already in our countries”, “Charles Martel. I am tired.” in answer to Marine Le Pen on 16 October, read through a stated inference as the expulsion of Muslim people by force, and on 17 October “Mass-remigration is the solution.”, read through a stated inference, and “France could also ensure that these race riots are not repeated. How? Mass-remigration. Yes, it is possible to revoke citizenships even for people born in France.” PaulGolding supplies four with the group in his own words: “Millions will go!” on 12 October, a “Rally for Remigration” in Coventry on Saturday 21 November, announced on 13 October, “Remigration! Remigration! Remigration!” on 16 October and, on 17 October, “The entire political elite should be guillotined! France needs a new Robespierre!”, a call against a political camp as a class. TRobinsonNewEra supplies two: “Remigration and de-islamisation can’t come quick enough.” on 15 October, and “They’ve got to go” after a demand that “remigration and de-islamisation” be enacted on 16 October. HomerPavlos supplies two: on 15 October, after recounting the centuries of war that ended Muslim rule in the Iberian peninsula, he asked “How far would you go for your people?”, read through a stated inference, and on 17 October he wrote the line on every Muslim person in France. Five accounts supply one each, and three of the five rest on a stated inference: Steve_Laws_, who wrote on 12 October that remigration means “all immigrants” and “It’s irrelevant if they were born here or not, they are going back.”; EvaVlaar, on the “closed borders and Remigration” demanded with the Save Europe Act; Cernovich, with “The right supports remigration.”; and on 17 October JackPosobiec, with “Remigration is safe and effective”, and Geiger_Capital, with “Remigration is the moderate solution.”
No script reached the top tier. Of the 28 ranked scripts, 11 stand in the second tier and 17 in the third; the peak priority score (EPS) is 3.6 and the median is 2.8. Two scripts share the peak, and both demand removal. The replacement and removal script is the largest in the record at 62 items, and 14 of them sit at the calling-for-violence rung. Rupert Lowe carries the largest share of its measured impressions, among them “Britain will burn like France unless we deport those who want us dead. We must act before they do.” on 17 October; Nigel Farage, who leads Reform UK, wrote on 12 October that people resettled under the Afghanistan schemes would be reviewed and “all the others will have to leave”; and Geert Wilders, Maxime Bernier and Santiago Abascal, who lead parties in the Netherlands, Canada and Spain, carry removal demands in their own words. The second holds 23 items denying Muslim people a place in Western countries. Rupert Lowe’s post on the faith carries most of its measured impressions. After a Somali-born MP swore her oath on the Quran on 12 October, calvinrobinson wrote, using an archaic slur for Muslim people, that Parliament should have none of them, and LauraLoomer wrote on 16 October “Ban Muslims from holding office in America.” The Ifop poll for Marianne, which found that 46% of Muslim respondents would consider leaving France if Marine Le Pen wins, drew TRobinsonNewEra’s “Never a better campaign message” and Geert Wilders’s line that the faith “has no place in our nations”. Our anchors set harm potential at its top value where a script holds a concrete call for violence against a defined group, and a script there takes a second-tier minimum whatever its computed score. Six scripts reach that value. Three reach the second tier on their computed scores: the two peak scripts and the call for the crushing and death of Jewish people, where the Hajduk Split chant and a board call sit beside jacksonhinkle’s five posts of 17 October praising Yahya Sinwar, who planned the 7 October 2023 attack, among them “Sinwar was a HERO!” and “LONG LIVE SINWAR!”. Three take the tier from the minimum: the killing of Black people and immigrants wished for and celebrated, on the bookshop’s hanging call and board threads; violence against members of opposing political camps, on PaulGolding’s guillotine call and a board cheer for the punch thrown at a protester at the Youngstown rally; and Jewish and Christian people marked to perish, carried by board threads alone. The 13 board-only scripts have no impression count to read; they are scored on four measurable factors and ranked in a list of their own. Six more scripts compute into the second tier with no call inside them: the invasion frame, where Nigel Farage wrote “Only Reform will stop the invasion” and Cernovich wrote “The men of the UK are morally allowed to revolt at this point.”; the essentialism script that holds the President’s Youngstown remarks; violence assigned to Muslim people as a group, where LauraLoomer wrote on 17 October “Muslims are burning France right now. Coming to America soon.” and Geert Wilders “When the left and Islam join forces you get a kind of Civil War.”; the recast of the unrest in France as the work of people of migrant descent, which rests mainly on visegrad24; the denial of belonging by descent; and the enemy-within charge against Muslim officeholders, from marklevinshow’s “Jihadi within” on New York’s mayor to LauraLoomer’s “So I was right. He’s a jihadist.” on Abdul El-Sayed.
Mainstreaming risk sits at 5 on eight scripts, each carried in his own words by a head of state, a sitting member of parliament or the leader of a party that contests national elections, whom our anchors count as a politician; the leader of a fringe group counts as a bridge, at 3, as PaulGolding of Britain First does. The President carries two of them through his Youngstown speech of 12 October, which reaches the record through the reports of AP and Newsweek and a news publisher’s Bluesky quotation posts and carries no impression count. AP reported that he called Somali people “low IQ” and said they “don’t have pants to wear”, which we code hateful, and that supporters chanted “Deport!” as he began on Somali people. In Newsweek’s report he said “Somalia bandits, third world gangs and jihadist sympathizers do not belong in Ohio. They don’t belong in America.”, which we code threatening, a demand that a group leave with no program of removal attached; reading Somali people as the line’s object rests on the same speech’s passages on Somali people in Minnesota. In the same speech he described Representative Ilhan Omar’s birth country as a place without laws whose people only shoot each other, hours after federal agents searched her home, and said Democrats want the Midwest turned into the Somali capital before calling the Michigan nominee a jihadist. Rupert Lowe carries items in four scripts, among them the pledge that a Restore Britain government will remove “millions of migrants who arrived legally, but are a drain on our society, our economy and our people.” Nigel Farage carries the invasion, removal and criminality scripts, from “Only Reform will stop the invasion” to a “NATIONAL SECURITY EMERGENCY” over a suspected Islamic State fighter who had claimed asylum. Geert Wilders, who leads a party in the Dutch parliament, wrote that all Syrian and Ukrainian people must go and that the faith “has no place in our nations”. Maxime Bernier, who leads the People’s Party of Canada, wrote that Indian international students should be sent back to India; Santiago Abascal, who leads Vox, called the migrants in Ceuta invaders to be expelled from Spanish soil on the eve of the king’s visit, in elDiario.es’s report; Lee Anderson, a sitting Reform UK MP, wrote that residents say their streets are “falling victim to crime and squalor” as asylum seekers move from hotels to shared houses; and Nick Tenconi wrote that migrants “come to Britain to exploit our system”. Viktor Orban, who leads Fidesz, wrote on 14 October that the Tisza government is rewriting Hungary’s child protection law “to serve the interests of LGBTQ organisations and paedophiles”, an individual hit we code stigmatizing. Beside them, the heaviest named carriers are commentator accounts: TRobinsonNewEra supplies more confirmed items than any other account, and LauraLoomer and RadioGenoa the next most. RadioGenoa’s post of 17 October that Roma people who rob tourists in Milan are marked with red paint, which calls them by a slur, carries the second-largest impression count in this record and is an individual hit. The President’s rally remark held in this ledger is the item that set the El-Sayed association card on the polarization instrument to ignited. That card stands in W1 at 4.4 CPS, a score on that instrument’s own anchors that reads only against other CPS figures, and on it the Rogers campaign, the President and the Republican Jewish Coalition argue that his family is tied to the Muslim Brotherhood. There the carriers argue association; in the posts this ledger holds, his name and his faith are the charge.
The unrest in France anchors two scripts and runs through several more. On 17 October, as authorities counted 550,000 protesters across France and demonstrators breached the town hall in Marseille, visegrad24 blamed “second and third-generation migrants” for looting and wrote “An alliance of migrant gangs and Antifa extremists is attacking police officers and setting fires in front of the Milan Cathedral”, TRobinsonNewEra captioned four clips with “the green/islamic unholy alliance”, RadioGenoa answered the looting with “Send them back” in four posts, JackPosobiec wrote of the political left “The Unhumans have declared war on France”, and Geiger_Capital and visegrad24 each posted, unattributed, the passage from Jean Raspail’s The Camp of the Saints that begins “Your universe has no meaning to them”. Somali people sit at the center of the record from its first day. Beside the President’s speech, LauraLoomer wrote of “low IQ Somalis” hours before the rally and on 13 October that “Ohio and Minnesota are being taken over by Somali Muslims”, DavidVance asked “Can someone tell me what Somalis have added to the UK?”, and Cernovich answered a list of Somali-named suspects in the Eden Prairie shooting with “Birthright citizens.” On the day agents searched Representative Omar’s home, AuronMacintyre wrote that she wants to “hijack my country in the interest of her Somalian coethnics”, and LauraLoomer later answered a post defending her with “There’s nothing American about her.” The oath a Somali-born MP took on the Quran on 12 October drew calvinrobinson’s “Only Anglo Christian men should be able to stand for election in Britain”, RadioGenoa’s “Swearing on the Quran in Parliament shows which law comes first.” and ACTBrigitte’s complaint that Britain hands seats to refugees “from places that can’t govern themselves”. In the Noahide dispute on the American right, Candace Owens told Ben Shapiro on 15 October that his “worldview on Christians is that we either labor for you or must be destroyed”, which anchors a script casting Jewish religious law as holding Christian people for servitude or death. Board threads laid the Bend school shooting on Black people and on transgender people with no evidence, and the Cornell case drew board threads and posts on women as a sex, among them MyronGainesX’s claim that “A staggering portion are incapable of being impartial”. By arena, 157 items are directed across borders, 107 at the United States, 83 at Britain, 70 at France, 17 at Germany, 15 at Canada, 8 at Italy, 5 at the Netherlands, 2 each at Spain, Ireland and Sweden, and 1 each at Belgium, Norway, Portugal and Hungary, which accounts for all 472.
The events that drew nothing we could code are recorded beside the ones that did. Seven of the 27 drew no confirmed item: the attribution of the RAF Fairford plot to Iran, the claim that strikes on Yandex silenced bot networks, MI5’s annual threat update, the Green Party’s motion on Zionism and Labour’s ultimatum over it, the Dublin hotel’s withdrawal of rooms booked for a conference on combating antisemitism, the migration debate at the EU summit and the No Kings day of action. Fifteen more drew confirmed items inside scripts anchored elsewhere or as individual hits, and the weather board gives them.
Limitations this week
This record runs from Monday 12 October to Saturday 17 October, six days, and the latest post in it is stamped 23:59 UTC on Saturday 17 October. On X, RadioGenoa’s posts of 14 and 15 October were lost to the collector’s page cap, JackPosobiec’s collection begins on 14 October and RebelNewsOnline’s on 13 October for the same reason, and the state-media, news and aggregator accounts, among them XHNews, globaltimesnews and PDChina, carry nothing after about 07:00 UTC on 12 October. X covers 139 distinct roster accounts. Board threads opened on Saturday 17 October between about 07:00 and 17:37 UTC left the board before collection, and Bluesky in this record is mostly news outlets. The Limitations set out what each of these means for a reading of this page. We name no private individual on this page apart from two people convicted or charged in widely reported court cases, Nidal Hasan and Lindsay Clancy, and we leave unnamed the Bend shooter, the woman board threads call his mother and the community member who shot him, the Cornell accuser and the accused men, the men charged in the Aurora and OpenAI cases, the relatives of Abdul El-Sayed and Ilhan Omar, the man killed at Yorkshire Wildlife Park, the man wounded in the New York immigration shooting and the officer, the juror at the center of the Clancy motion, the suspect in the Toronto assault and the people in the Cologne and Milan cases.
Scripts by priority score (EPS)
Click a bar for the full scorecards.
The week’s weather, day by day
One dot per trigger event. Filled dots mark the five events a scored script cites as its trigger; hollow dots mark the rest, and fifteen of those drew confirmed items elsewhere on the ledger. Click for the full board.
The 472 items, by harm level
Click for the full ledger.
The items, by arena
Items and scripts per arena, the place a claim is directed at, with the peak priority score (EPS) among the ranked scripts that reach it. An arena with fewer than 3 items shows no reading. Click for the full ledger.
The drift gauge
Agreement on the exact rung across 120 confirmed items re-coded blind. Click for the method.
On the radar
Click a date for the full calendar and the patterns building toward it.
01 · The scripts
Five factors are scored from 1 to 5: reach, toxicity, coordination, mainstreaming risk, and harm potential. Each item that joins a script is assigned to exactly one, with overlaps adjudicated on the dominant predicate; the 48 items that match no script stand alone and appear on the ledger as individual hits. A script’s canonical claim is its shared core predicate, and escalation clauses, a removal remedy or an endorsement of force, are stated with the count of posts that carry them. Their composite Ember Priority Score (EPS) is shown on a chart running from 0 to 5; the axis starts at 0 for display, and the score itself cannot fall below 1. Click one for its scorecard. Peak EPS this week is 3.6, shared by two scripts: native populations described as replaced, with the removal of migrants and non-white people demanded as the answer, and Muslim people denied a place in Western countries, with their expulsion demanded. No script reached the top tier, and the median of the 28 ranked scripts sits at 2.8. Of those 28, 11 stand in the second tier and 17 in the third. The 13 scripts whose reach is unmeasured rank in a list of their own, 1 of them in the second tier, 1 in the third and 11 at the bottom. Our anchors set harm potential at 5 where a script holds a concrete call for violence against a defined group, and any script at 5 takes a second-tier minimum whatever its computed score. Every script holding an item adjudicated at the calling-for-violence rung sits at 5, six scripts in all. Three of the six compute into the second tier, and three take the tier from the minimum: the killing of Black people and immigrants wished for, violence against members of opposing political camps, and Jewish and Christian people marked to perish, the last carried by board threads alone. Toxicity anchors at 3 for sustained othering or coded terms and at 5 for explicit dehumanization or called-for harm, and 13 scripts sit at 5, among them every script that asks for killing or removal and the scripts placing Black people, non-white people, Indian and Hindu people, Arab people, Southeast Asian people, men and political camps below the human; 14 sit at 4 and 14 at 3. Mainstreaming risk reaches 5 on 8 scripts, where a head of state, a sitting member of parliament or the leader of a party that contests national elections carries the claim in his own words, sits at 4 on 12 scripts carried by large accounts that bridge into wider audiences and at 3 on 7, sits at 2 on 1, and sits at 1 on the 13 scripts that live on the boards alone. Reach reads platform-reported figures where a platform publishes them. Where a head of state’s speech reaches the record through published reports with no counter, reach reads the office and the national pickup. Reach is an input on the 28 ranked scripts alone: 11 sit at 4, 12 at 3, 3 at 2 and 2 at 1. Coordination sits at 1 on every one of the 41 scripts, and every script carries the verdict no coordination identified: we found no bridge account, no named hub and no directive on any of them, and we did not document independent origin either, which is what an organic parallel verdict would take. What the record holds is convergence: accounts repeating their own constructions, such as TRobinsonNewEra’s four “green/islamic unholy alliance” captions and visegrad24’s generational labels across nine posts; one slogan, that millions must go, in posts by EvaVlaar, PuckDaddy93 and PaulGolding with no reply, quote or shared hub between them; one unattributed passage from The Camp of the Saints posted by two accounts about three hours apart; and posts clustering on an event’s clock, the Youngstown speech, the Ifop poll and the unrest of 17 October. None of that establishes coordination or independent origin under our rules. 13 scripts sit within 0.15 of a tier edge and carry a boundary mark, which gives one factor and the score a one-step move in it would give. Six marks name a coordination step from 1 to 2, which would take a documented link between accounts that no script carries this week: on four of them, migrant criminality, Muslim presence read as conquest, migrants cast as a drain on public money and diversity blamed for national ruin, the step would carry the score from 2.9 to 3.3, into the second tier, and on two board-only scripts it would carry the Jewish depopulation plot and the celebration of violence against women from 1.9 to 2.2, into the third tier. Seven marks name a step down. Harm potential is the step on four: the essentialism script and violence assigned to Muslim people would fall to 2.8 and the recast of the unrest in France to 2.9, all three into the third tier, and the anti-Indian vermin script, published at the 2.0 edge, would fall to 1.7, into the bottom tier. Reach is the step on the denial of belonging by descent and the enemy-within charge against Muslim officeholders, both published at the 3.0 edge, which would fall to 2.8, into the third tier. Mainstreaming is the step on the call for the death of Jewish people, which would take its score to 2.8, where the harm minimum keeps it in the second tier. Ember stages follow a script’s lifecycle, from a spark and a framing contest through collectivization and coded escalation (S4) to a jump across platforms (S5) and adoption by a large political or verified account (S6); this week 8 scripts sit at S6, 4 at S5 and 29 at S4.
02 · The ledger
Click a row for the quote, the coding and the source. Every row carries its coding, and every row outside the identification bar carries its quote and its source. The ledger counts one item to a url, and where two independent codings of one url disagreed, the less severe coding stands: no hit is the default and the burden sits on the harm call. The rungs run stigmatizing 221, hateful 103, biased 60, threatening 47, calling for violence 29 and glorifying violence 12. Medium is the most common coding confidence, and each item’s detail gives its own. In the captured ledger the dates run heaviest on Saturday 17 October, the day of the marches across France, and lightest on Wednesday 14 October. Four items reach the record through published reports: the President’s Youngstown line, reported by Newsweek; Santiago Abascal’s remarks in Ceuta, reported by elDiario.es; the chant on the Hajduk Split march, reported by Euronews; and the bookshop’s reply, quoted by Byline Times. Each takes the date of the speech, the march or the post. X posts supply most of the ledger and the two boards most of the rest; the boards carry no handles and no view counts, so a board row gives its board and nothing more. Five rows reach the record through Bluesky, three of them a news publisher’s quotation posts of the President’s Youngstown remarks and two of them private accounts’ posts. Under our identification bar the five are shown without the account or the wording and dated to their week, and this page quotes the President’s words from AP’s and Newsweek’s reports. Six board rows, among them threads on the Bend shooting and the Cornell case, are shown without their links. Where a quoted row holds a slur, the slur is described in brackets and never spelled.
03 · The week’s weather
Together the events show which stories these narratives picked up before this record closed and which drew no confirmed harm item. The board marks an event as anchoring a script when a scored script cites it as its trigger, and five events meet that test. The President’s Youngstown speech of 12 October anchors the essentialism script. The Ifop poll for Marianne anchors the script denying Muslim people a place in Western countries. The Hajduk Split march to the Poljud stadium anchors the call for the crushing and death of Jewish people. The Noahide dispute on the American right anchors the script casting Jewish religious law as holding Christian people for servitude or death. The marches and unrest across France on 17 October anchor two scripts: violence assigned to Muslim people as a group, and the recast of the unrest as the work of people of migrant descent. Fifteen more events drew confirmed items inside scripts anchored elsewhere or as individual hits, and the board marks them with hollow dots beside the events that drew nothing. The search of Representative Omar’s home drew AuronMacintyre’s post on her “Somalian coethnics” and a board post regretting that she will not be deported. The attacks on Abdul El-Sayed drew LauraLoomer’s “He’s a jihadist.” and the President’s line in the Youngstown speech. Reform’s asylum pledge drew Nigel Farage’s removal line on Afghan arrivals and his invasion post, and ITV’s undercover investigation into Reform drew DavidVance’s wish that “millions of Pakistani migrants” leave for Pakistan. The campaign against shared houses in Salford shares its arena with Lee Anderson’s post on asylum seekers moved from hotels into such houses. The royal visit to Ceuta drew Santiago Abascal’s invasion and expulsion remarks. The Cornell case drew board threads and posts on women as a sex. The death at Yorkshire Wildlife Park drew a board post saying Jewish people had scrubbed the footage. The OpenAI charge drew LauraLoomer’s “Of course it was a Muslim foreigner”. The diversity visa ruling drew a board title heading the judge with an anti-Asian slur. LauraLoomer’s post of 12 October calling Muslim people “those animals” shares the arena of the Hasan execution, set for 3 December, which the president said on 15 October would not be livestreamed. The Aurora temple plot drew a board post presenting it as the work of MAGA supporters. The Bend school shooting drew board threads laying it on Black people and on transgender people. LauraLoomer’s posts of 13 October attacking the mayor over ICE in New York as an “uppity African Muslim” share the arena of the sanctuary ruling of 15 October. Alberta’s referendum drew a board thread calling readers to vote against Canada’s Liberals under an anti-Jewish slur. Seven events drew no confirmed item at all: the Fairford attribution, the Yandex claim, MI5’s threat update, the Green Party’s Zionism motion, the Dublin hotel booking, the EU summit’s migration debate and the No Kings day of action. Eight items carried onto the watchlist from earlier weeks were recorded as not recurring: the date named in the Mall of America complaint and the Free Palestine concert run, which fall after the window and are carried forward; the Clancy case and the Channel dinghy case, whose next hearings fall on 2 and 12 November; the Spanish general strike and snap election, whose dates fall after the window; the Vice President’s line at Lakeland, which had no new step; and RadioGenoa’s stated trial in Rome, for which we found no report of a hearing. A hollow dot means no scored script cites the event as its trigger, and seven of those 22 events drew no confirmed item at all.
04 · On the radar
The first list holds the patterns still moving when this record closed, each with the step that would change its reading. The second holds dated events after the close, from Alberta’s referendum on 19 October through the date named in the Mall of America complaint, 24 October, the American midterm elections on 3 November and the Rally for Remigration PaulGolding has announced in Coventry for 21 November, to the execution planned at Fort Hood on 3 December. Each event is listed with the scripts that attached to its arena in this record, and where no confirmed item touches the event or its arena, the entry says so. Both lists describe what this record holds.
Each comparison here sets one narrative beside itself a week earlier. The join is a key ruled when the narrative was carded, and similarity between the two weeks’ text plays no part in it. This record covers six days and last week’s covered seven, so a count set beside last week’s compares a shorter window. Thirty-two of the 41 scripts continue a ruled lineage and 9 open a new one, among them Jewish religious law cast as holding Christian people for servitude or death, standing for Parliament and the vote reserved for Christian men of one ethnicity, the sexual abuse of children ascribed to Muslim people, and Jewish and Christian people marked to perish. The call for the crushing and death of Jewish people opens a new chain, and last week’s chain on the celebration of the killing of Jewish people is not carded in this record. The script assigning hidden control to Jewish people continues the longest chain in the record, opened in the last week of July, and holds the third tier at 2.8 with the same five factor values as last week, and the replacement and removal script holds the second tier at 3.6 with the same values as last week. The script denying Muslim people a place in Western countries moves to the peak with mainstreaming at 5 against 4, on Rupert Lowe’s and Geert Wilders’s posts. Eleven scripts were scored in a different tier, two in a higher tier and nine in a lower one. The invasion frame was scored in the second tier against the third, with harm potential at 4 against 3, on posts that point at a named asylum hotel in Warwick and at the coach firms carrying asylum seekers and on Cernovich’s line that the men of the UK are “morally allowed to revolt”. The recast of the unrest in France was scored in the second tier against the third, with toxicity and harm potential at 4 against 3, on visegrad24’s generational and gang labels and on a named mayor placed in the riots by his race and faith. Going the other way, migrant criminality was scored in the third tier against the second, with toxicity and harm potential at 3 against 4; Muslim presence read as conquest in the third against the second, with toxicity and mainstreaming at 4 against 5 and harm potential at 3 against 5; and the sexual menace assigned to migrant and Muslim men in the third against the second, with reach, toxicity and harm potential at 3 against 4 and mainstreaming at 4 against 5. Six board-only scripts moved from the third tier to the bottom tier. Five of them, the Jewish depopulation plot, crime assigned to Black people as a trait, transgender people cast as violent, Indian presence as degradation and political camps cast as child abusers, had a named account carrying them to X last week and board threads alone this week, which takes reach out of the score and sets mainstreaming at 1. The sixth, white people cast as a lesser race, was carried by board threads alone in both weeks and was scored at toxicity 4 against 5 and harm potential 2 against 3. The script on violence against political camps holds the second tier from the harm minimum at 2.6 against 3.6 last week, with reach at 1 against 4 and mainstreaming at 3 against 5: last week a platform owner’s post and an MP’s pledges carried it, and this week PaulGolding’s guillotine call and a board cheer. Seventeen of last week’s chains are not carded in this record, among them the praise of attacks on migrant housing, Palestinian people ranked worthless, Palestinian identity cast as invented, Israeli people cast as controlling the United States, gay, lesbian and transgender people marked for punishment or death, the deaths of Russian people welcomed and the killing of Indian and Hindu people called for. Four of them have one individual hit each this week: race mixing, the celebration of deaths in Gaza, Palestinian people cast as collectively murderous, through LauraLoomer’s post that Palestinian “children” are not children, and political camps cast as violent, through HonestRepCanada’s post of 15 October. RadioGenoa, LauraLoomer and MyronGainesX, who carried several of these chains last week, posted in this window.
05 · Method
This edition covers six days, Monday 12 to Saturday 17 October 2026, and lands on Sunday 18 October. From the next edition, the weekly window runs from Sunday to Saturday.
This is a purposive, outcome-selected monitoring sample framed by a 1,034-account roster spanning 23 ideological categories. The roster is the frame we track, and the collection combines the X timelines of the roster’s handles, the Bluesky feeds we follow with a network search beside them, two 4chan boards, /pol/ and /g/, and a news table. On X the collector reads a nightly pull list and a share of the roster handles each night in turn, and before the record closed a top-up read the roster handles those nights had not reached, apart from the state-media, news and aggregator accounts named in the Limitations. Roster and board collection is systematic within those limits; off-roster discovery is opportunistic and incomplete, and this week it consists of four items quoted in published reports and five items that reached the record through Bluesky. A hit is language about a group defined by who its members are, or about a political camp as a class of people, said of the group as a whole in the poster’s own voice. Each confirmed item is coded at the most severe of six rungs, and the rungs follow the written rung definitions of our methodology. Biased states a negative trait of the group that stops short of danger or lesser worth. Stigmatizing presents the group as a danger or a problem to be managed, including immigration framed as invasion or as degradation by contact. Hateful treats the group as lesser or as not belonging, including the denial that its members belong to the nation. Threatening warns the group that harm will come to it, or demands that it be silent, hide or leave, without itself asking for the harm. Glorifying violence celebrates harm already done to the group or praises the people who did it. Calling for violence asks for harm to come to the group or sets conditions for it: violence, killing, expulsion by force, or a “solution” to its presence. On the expulsion line, a named program of compulsory removal by origin, such as remigration or the mass deportation of a named people, sits at calling for violence; a demand or warning that a group leave, with no program named, sits at threatening; and a mass-deportation demand with no origin stated removes people by status and sits below the top rung. A coder may supply the step that makes an item hostile to a group when the words alone do not carry it, and records what was supplied and from what context. A ranking classifier scores the posts screened for the hunts for how likely each is to clear the bar, and every post it rates 0.9 or above is decided by a hunter, with every decline among them checked again. Saturday’s later posts and the posts of the accounts read last carry no classifier score, and hunters read each of them. A second reading runs over the highest-rated of the posts it rated 0.7 or above that no hunt coded, and this week it confirmed 7 items. A verifier tests every hit. A drift gauge re-codes a sample of the confirmed ledger blind each week, and its readings follow below. This instrument states whether an item cleared our harm bar. It makes no legal finding in any jurisdiction, and the countries on this ledger do not share one standard. Every hit rests on a dated source read in full at collection. Where the source was still live, the quote was checked against it; where it had already gone offline, which covers the board threads, the check ran against our collection record. Language of these kinds does not clear our harm bar: claims about a class defined by conduct; the word Islamist used as a political label; institutions as targets; criticism of named individuals over their own acts, including a defendant who is a private individual and never a proxy for a group; captions whose target sits in a video we could not view; stock partisan idiom; and bare statements of dislike. The ledger holds 472 items across 472 distinct urls, one item per url. Research and drafting run through Claude under this methodology; every published classification passes the documented verification chain, and Jerm holds final editorial responsibility. 12 items this week cleared the extremism branch of our gate, which covers a political camp cast as subhuman, as a criminal class, or as a body to be removed, imprisoned or destroyed: JackPosobiec’s four posts applying his “Unhumans” label to the political left over the unrest in France, PaulGolding’s guillotine call, board threads calling MAGA supporters subhumans and a cult that protects child abusers, a board cheer for the punch thrown at a protester at the Youngstown rally, a Bluesky reply addressing MAGA supporters as a herd, and HonestRepCanada’s post casting pro-Palestinian protesters as violent. HonestRepCanada’s post of 15 October is the item that set the polarization instrument’s card on the Free Palestine movement to ignited. One of the 12 sits at calling for violence. Every other confirmed item concerns a group defined by who its members are, as our methodology lists them. Items from other directions are coded under the same standard: board threads casting white people as a lesser race, men as violent apes and Christian people as marked to perish beside Jewish people, and a board call for the torture to death of white people.
Each week a drift gauge re-codes a sample of the confirmed ledger blind, so a reader can see how far a fresh coder reproduces the published coding. This week two blind codings re-coded a sample of 120 confirmed items drawn across all six rungs. The two codings agreed with each other on the exact rung 94 percent of the time and within one rung 97 percent of the time, and the first agreed with the published coding 82 percent of the time on the exact rung and the second 81 percent, each 87 percent within one. The published coding places about half the sample at hateful or above, and so does each blind coding. Where the first blind coding parted from the published rung, it sat higher on 9 items and lower on 13, and the second sat higher on 11 and lower on 12; in each, 9 of the lower readings found no hit in a confirmed item. Items coded through a recorded inference reproduced less well than items whose hostility sits in the words: on the 36 items whose coding records an inference, the first coding matched the published rung 64 percent of the time and came within one rung 72 percent of the time, and on the 84 items whose hostility sits in the words, 89 and 93 percent. A step that rests on an image, a thread or a carrier’s earlier posts does not travel with the text alone, and 6 of the 17 calls from accounts on X rest on such a step.
The roster is the frame we track, and the collection combines the handles on our lists, the two boards, a Bluesky network search and a news table. Every number here is computed from the roster file, the handle lists and the collection database for the window of 2026-10-12 to 2026-10-17.
| Source | Handles on our lists | Handles collected | Handles that returned a post | Posts collected |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| X | 152 (46 matched to a roster category) | 136 | 139 | 5,465 |
| Bluesky | 52 (4 matched to a roster category) | 667 | 637 | 5,335 |
| 4chan boards | not applicable | 2 | 2 | 1,729 |
| News outlets | not applicable | 312 | 182 | 237 |
The roster holds 1,034 accounts across 23 categories, and 136 of them sit in more than one category, so the category column below counts more accounts than the roster holds. Handles collected counts the handles that stored a post by the collection that closed the record on 18 October, in both tables, and handles that returned a post counts those with a post dated in the window. A handle can return a post dated in the window that was stored after the record closed, so returned can exceed collected. A handle the collector read that returned nothing leaves no row. The Bluesky collector also runs a network search beyond the handles we track, so its collected count exceeds its list; the X collector reads only the handles listed.
| Roster category | Accounts |
|---|---|
| Anti-Establishment, Socialist and Anti-War Media | 74 |
| Great Replacement and White Nationalist Accounts | 73 |
| Far-Right, Nationalist and Culture War Figures | 65 |
| Pro-Israel and Zionist Accounts | 65 |
| Alternative Media, Sovereign and Conspiracy Theorists | 63 |
| Far-Left, Anti-Imperialist and Communist Commentators | 62 |
| Pro-Immigration, Sanctuary and Migrant Rights Accounts | 58 |
| Anti-Semitic and Syncretic Conspiracy Accounts | 56 |
| Black Radical, Pan-Africanist and Marxist-Leninist Factions | 56 |
| Islamophobic, Anti-Islam and Counter-Jihad Accounts | 56 |
| Anti-Establishment Tech, Finance and Geopolitical Dissidents | 55 |
| Anti-Illegal Immigration and Border Nationalist Accounts | 55 |
| Anti-China and Dissident Accounts | 50 |
| Pro-China and State-Affiliated Media Accounts | 49 |
| Extreme Christian Nationalist and Dominionist Accounts | 47 |
| Anti-Vaccine and Medical-Freedom Extremist Accounts | 46 |
| Anarchist, Eco-Radical and Left-Libertarian Organizers | 45 |
| Radical Islamist and Salafi-Jihadist Ideologue Accounts | 44 |
| Pro-Feminist and Intersectionality Accounts | 43 |
| The Manosphere and Red Pill Ecosystem | 41 |
| Anti-Feminist, Traditionalist and Counter-Feminist Accounts | 39 |
| Anti-Christian, Militant Atheist and Secularist Accounts | 38 |
| Anti-Technology and Anti-AI Extremist Accounts | 26 |
The table below sorts the 46 of 152 X handles we can match to a roster category by name, and a handle on more than one category is counted in each. The other 106 are handles our records hold without a category, and they are collected and read the same way. 14 categories returned an X post this week.
| Roster category | X handles matched | Collected | Returned a post | Posts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Islamophobic, Anti-Islam and Counter-Jihad Accounts | 8 | 8 | 8 | 637 |
| Anti-Illegal Immigration and Border Nationalist Accounts | 12 | 12 | 12 | 501 |
| Far-Right, Nationalist and Culture War Figures | 12 | 11 | 11 | 416 |
| Great Replacement and White Nationalist Accounts | 7 | 6 | 6 | 198 |
| Alternative Media, Sovereign and Conspiracy Theorists | 2 | 1 | 1 | 191 |
| Anti-Establishment, Socialist and Anti-War Media | 5 | 5 | 5 | 115 |
| Far-Left, Anti-Imperialist and Communist Commentators | 5 | 4 | 4 | 80 |
| Pro-Israel and Zionist Accounts | 3 | 3 | 3 | 71 |
| Extreme Christian Nationalist and Dominionist Accounts | 2 | 2 | 2 | 52 |
| Pro-China and State-Affiliated Media Accounts | 4 | 4 | 4 | 42 |
| The Manosphere and Red Pill Ecosystem | 1 | 1 | 1 | 33 |
| Anti-Establishment Tech, Finance and Geopolitical Dissidents | 2 | 2 | 2 | 28 |
| Anti-Semitic and Syncretic Conspiracy Accounts | 2 | 1 | 1 | 11 |
| Pro-Immigration, Sanctuary and Migrant Rights Accounts | 5 | 1 | 1 | 6 |
| Anarchist, Eco-Radical and Left-Libertarian Organizers | 1 | 0 | 0 | 0 |
The record runs six days. This record runs from Monday 12 October to Saturday 17 October, six days, and the latest post in it is stamped 23:59 UTC on Saturday 17 October. Posts stamped early on 12 October UTC were written on Sunday evening in North American time.
Comparisons with last week set six days beside seven. The lines that compare a script with its chain a week earlier set two records side by side. This record covers six days and last week’s covered seven. The number of scripts, items and calls in each depends on that week’s events, on its length and on how its items were grouped, and a difference between the two says nothing about the direction of the discourse. A narrative can be absent because it lost its carriers, because it did not clear the bar in this window or because our collection did not surface it, and these records cannot separate those.
The X record has gaps. The nightly pull list holds a fixed core of handles and the roster handles named in the past seven days of our news table, and it held 32 handles at the close; the collector also reads a share of the roster handles each night in turn, and before the record closed a top-up read the roster handles those nights had not reached, apart from the state-media, news and aggregator accounts named below. X covers 139 distinct roster accounts with a post dated in the window, of the 152 roster X handles, and 13 carry none. Each read takes at most 200 posts per handle. RadioGenoa’s posts of 14 and 15 October were lost to that page cap, and JackPosobiec’s collection begins on 14 October and RebelNewsOnline’s on 13 October for the same reason, so their counts in this record are floors. The state-media, news and aggregator accounts on X, among them XHNews, globaltimesnews and PDChina, carry nothing after about 07:00 UTC on 12 October. A post deleted before its handle was read is absent. The X collection reads each handle’s own posts, quote posts among them, and leaves out its replies and reposts, so carriage that lives in reply threads is absent.
Bluesky and the boards are read in part. Bluesky in this record is mostly news outlets, and the five items it carries are a news publisher’s quotation posts of the President’s remarks and two private accounts’ posts. Bluesky publishes no impression count, so the five add nothing to any reach figure. Board threads opened on Saturday 17 October between about 07:00 and 17:37 UTC left the board before collection. A board is read from its catalog, so a thread that opened and died between two reads is missed, and the board items on this ledger are a lower bound on the qualifying threads those boards carried.
Impression counts are capture-time counters. Platform-reported impression counts are capture-time platform counters, and they can rise after we read them. Each figure is the counter as it stood when we read it, and handles read by the nightly pulls and by the top-up were read at different ages after posting. A counter tallies displays of a post, so one reader can account for several displays, and a script’s audience can sit above or below its sum. The derived 39,952,722 figure sums the 41 scripts; the 48 items outside them are not in it, among them RadioGenoa’s post on Roma people in Milan, and board threads, Bluesky posts and the four report-borne items add nothing to it.
Reach reads platform figures where a platform publishes them. The 4chan corpus has no view counts and no persistent handles, so board items add nothing to a script’s reach, and any comparison of captured impression counters on this page ranks X carriage only. The 13 scripts that no named carrier touched are scored on their four measurable factors and ranked in their own list, outside the peak, the median and the ranked table. Where a head of state’s speech reaches the record through published reports with no counter, reach reads the office and the national pickup: the President’s remarks carry no impression count, so the essentialism script’s reach of 4 reads a head of state’s campaign speech carried by a national outlet beside its measured X total. Every report-borne item rests on the report’s quotation and our record of it.
A few accounts carry much of the named ledger. TRobinsonNewEra supplies more confirmed items than any other account, across nine scripts, and LauraLoomer and RadioGenoa the next most, across ten each. visegrad24 carries 9 of the 16 posts in the recast of the unrest in France and most of its measured impressions, LauraLoomer 8 of the 15 posts in the conquest script, and RadioGenoa most of the measured impressions in the script blaming diversity for national ruin. TheGloriousLion and PaulGolding supply 8 of the 17 calls from accounts on X. Where one account supplies most of a script, the script’s volume and reach describe that account’s output, and a change in its posting, or in our collection of it, would move the script’s readings with it. RadioGenoa’s missing posts of 14 and 15 October bear on every script it carries.
Coding is a judgment. The drift gauge sets out how far a fresh coder reproduces the published coding. Items coded through a recorded inference reproduced less well than items whose hostility sits in the words, and 6 of the 17 calls from accounts on X rest on such an inference. The gauge’s 120 items come from 335 of the 472 confirmed items, and the other 137 are outside its sample. Each item’s detail gives its coding confidence.
Some posts had no second check. A verifier tested every hit, and every decline of a post the ranking classifier rated 0.9 or above was checked again. A second reading covered the highest-rated of the posts it rated 0.7 or above that no hunt coded. The rest of those posts had no second reading, and a hunter’s decline of a post rated below 0.9, or of one of Saturday’s later posts or the posts of the accounts read last, had no second check, so the ledger can miss qualifying items among them.
We name no private individual. Private individuals are never named on this page, apart from Nidal Hasan and Lindsay Clancy, people convicted or charged in widely reported court cases, and no quote that would identify one is published. Several arenas this week turned on private individuals: the Bend shooter, whom board threads worked to identify, the woman they call his mother and the community member who shot him; the Cornell accuser and the accused men; the men charged in the Aurora and OpenAI cases; the relatives of Abdul El-Sayed and Ilhan Omar; the man killed at Yorkshire Wildlife Park; the man wounded in the New York immigration shooting and the officer; the juror at the center of the Clancy motion; the suspect in the Toronto assault; the five people charged over the Eden Prairie shooting; the protester punched at the Youngstown rally; and the people in the Cologne, Milan, Birmingham, Bradford and Oslo cases. Where an item concerns one of them, the ledger quotes the carrier’s words about the group, and none of our own text identifies the person. Items that reached us through Bluesky are shown without the account or the wording, since either would identify the account.
Coordination is two readings that answer different questions. The coordination factor measures degree of organization on the 1 to 5 anchors and moves above 1 only on a documented link between accounts: a bridge account, phrasing copied along a documented path, or a named hub. The coordination verdict requires a confirmed bridge account, a named hub or an arrangement, and convergence alone never reaches it. Every one of the 41 scripts carries no coordination identified and a coordination factor of 1: we found no bridge, no hub and no directive, and we did not document independent origin either. On an anonymous board, one actor and an organized handful cannot be told apart, and each convergence signal becomes a coordination check if a linking account appears.
The news layer has no general American politics beat. The news table holds 237 in-window rows and no general American politics beat, so the American arenas on the weather board rest on publisher articles read directly and on the posts table. The event scan ran early on Sunday 18 October UTC, so its entries for Saturday 17 October, the marches in France and the No Kings day of action, were written before final counts were available.
No hit-rate or prevalence claim here may be read as a comparison across ideological lanes. That comparison requires a lane-tier sample for every lane compared, over a common platform footprint. We did not draw that sample this week.
Five factors, each scored 1 to 5: reach (R), toxicity (T), coordination (C), mainstreaming risk (M), and harm potential (H). They combine as (R·T·C·M1.3·H1.5)1/5.8: multiply all five, with mainstreaming risk raised to the 1.3 power and harm potential to the 1.5 power, the weighting our methodology applies to every script that holds a confirmed item, which is every script here, then take the 5.8th root. The 5.8 is the sum of the weights, which brings the result back onto the 1-to-5 scale. The trajectory multiplier, which scales a score by how fast a script’s volume moved, was not measured for any script this window, so each published score is its base score. Multiplication limits how far any one factor can lift a score. One override runs the other way: any script at H=5 takes a second-tier minimum regardless of its computed score. Our anchors set H=5 at a concrete, explicit call for violence against a defined target, at a concrete target with a place or a time and mobilization, or at violence already carried out, and every script that holds an item adjudicated at the calling-for-violence rung sits there. The minimum keeps a small account that asks for violence against a defined group from scoring its way into the bottom tier. Six scripts reach H=5 this week, and 3 of them take their tier from that minimum. Tiers rank scripts only. The 48 items that match no script sit outside the ranking and carry no score and no tier; two of them sit at the calling-for-violence rung, and as individual hits they carry no score. Tier edges: the top tier starts at 4.0, the second at 3.0, the third at 2.0. Scores are published to one decimal place, and the tier reads off the published figure. A score that lands within 0.15 of a tier edge is marked at the boundary, and the mark gives a single factor and the score a one-step move in it would give; 13 scripts are marked this week, and on each of them the step would carry the score across an edge. Reach is the one factor a board-only script cannot supply: an anonymous board publishes no impression count, so a script carried only by board threads is scored on its four measurable factors as (T·C·M1.3·H1.5)1/4.8, marked reach unmeasured, and ranked in a list of its own, away from the scripts whose reach was read. Coordination as a factor reaches the co-platforming and network anchors on a named hub or a confirmed bridge, and a script can score above 1 on the factor and still carry no coordination identified as its verdict; no script scored above 1 on it this week.
Full-schema agreement: 78% as of 2026-07-27